They have been 25 years in power, eight million exiled, thousands murdered, tortured and imprisoned, entire families divided.
By Hector Schamis (Confidencial)
HAVANA TIMES – Seven days remain until an election like no other. That is for Venezuela, of course, as well as for the entire region, considering the close relationships of the Maduro regime with other dictatorships and transnational organized crime. In fact, how this electoral process concludes will have a direct effect on the viability of democracies, which are currently weakened throughout the hemisphere.
Additionally, there are implications for the integrity of the Venezuelan state itself, which is fragmented, lacks territorial control, and is an exporter of crises and criminal organizations. All of this would be exponentially aggravated if another electoral fraud mocks the popular will once again. The exodus amounts to eight million people, 25% of the population. The question is, how much higher could it go in the face of another fraud, the continuing of the regime in power, and inevitably, more repression? That number is unthinkable today.
It is said that democracy is the product of the uncertainty of an electoral outcome supported by rules, in other words, institutions. In Venezuela, it has been the opposite for decades. The difference now is that chavismo is weaker than ever, society is mobilized and “angry” as rarely before, and the opposition is united and cohesive behind the leadership of Maria Corina Machado and the candidacy of Edmundo Gonzalez.
Therefore, in this election “unlike any other”, it is useful to consider three scenarios. First, if the elections actually take on Sunday, July 28th. Second, how the votes will be counted. Third, what kind of government will be formed starting on Monday, the 29th, assuming the undeniable reality that the regime is deeply unpopular. All of the above makes this an open-ended story.
Regarding the first scenario, there are abundant rumors of a suspension. The belligerence with Guyana, the invented assassination attempts on Maduro, the fable of a civil war, and the threat of a bloodbath —as if it hasn’t already happened in this quarter-century— reveal the true campaign agenda of the dictatorship. In other words, a hypothetical and clearly fabricated