and the winner will be a woman
All polls favor the governing party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum, but the opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez claims there is a “hidden vote.”
By Maria Lourdes Pallais (Confidencial)
HAVANA TIMES – For the first time in Mexico’s political history, two women are vying for the presidential seat in an election. One leads the polls while the other, heading the main opposition parties, claims there is a “hidden vote” that will favor her on June 2nd.
“I feel the street, all the people need is to lose their fear of going out to vote, that’s all. The number is magical: if 63% (come out to vote) we will win the election, despite the government’s political control,” the opposition candidate said about the polls favoring her rival, whom she has called “Ice Lady,” “the candidate of lies,” and “narco-candidate.”
The campaign has taken place in an environment with high levels of polarization, perhaps like never before in Mexico, fueled almost exclusively by insults (corrupt, cynical, enablers, conservatives, hypocrites, opportunists) thrown out daily by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) in his morning press conferences against those he considers his adversaries (journalists, analysts, politicians, businesspeople).
There are two coalitions setting the tone for this election (“referendum or plebiscite,” the still-president prefers to call it). The official “Keep Making History” of Morena, with the stoic and disciplined scientist Claudia Sheinbaum at the forefront, and the opposition alliance “Strength and Heart for Mexico,” with the charismatic engineer Xochitl Galvez, a politician, businesswoman, and computer engineer supported by the traditional parties (PRI, PAN, and PRD).
There is also a third political group in the race, Movimiento Ciudadano (MC), whose presidential candidate is Jorge Alvarez Maynez. This party recently suffered a tragedy where nine people died and 189 were injured in a campaign event in Nuevo Leon. MC, which holds around 10% of the preferences in the polls, is called a “strikebreaker” by many in the opposition because its existence takes votes away from Galvez.
It is also the largest election in Mexico’s history, covering over 19,000 positions, including 128 senate seats, 500 federal legislators, nine governorships, and the mayor of Mexico City.
Claudia Sheinbaum’s Advantage
The polls, which are many and not all reliable, show a significant difference between the candidacies. This is pointed out by Polls Oraculus MX (Polls of Polls), a platform that analyzes both the information from polling houses and their historical performance in relation to official results in past elections.
Based on this survey’s results, Claudia Sheinbaum leads the June 2nd race with a 22-point advantage over her closest competitor, Xochitl Galvez. The former mayor of Mexico City has 56% of the electoral preferences, while Galvez is in second place with 34% of the voting intentions. It is worth noting that Sheinbaum has seen a decline in her electoral preferences throughout the campaign, which started with 66% of the voting intentions.
It should also be noted that, although Sheinbaum is better known than Galvez, the trend in her favor is an inheritance by osmosis from the president, who is ultima
