between the hope of change and the government’s fear campaign
Maryhen Jimenez: Multiple challenges of a democratic transition: “consensus, coordination, participation, and not underestimating the adversary”.
By Carlos F. Chamorro (Confidencial)
HAVANA TIMES – Four days before the elections on Sunday, July 28, Venezuelan voters are torn between the “hope of change” proposed by the united opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, and the “fear” campaign promoted by President Nicolas Maduro, who predicts there will be a “bloodbath” if he does not win decisively at the polls.
Although all polls show Gonzalez leading Maduro by a margin of 20 to 30 points, observers are focused on the “electoral traps” promoted by Chavismo, relying on its political control of the National Electoral Council to discourage citizen participation and encourage null votes.
Political scientist Maryhen Jiménez, a researcher at Oxford University and an expert on authoritarian regimes, believes that “the important thing is the massive participation of Venezuelan society, as long as the difference in votes is significant. And above all, to have witnesses with the vote tabulation sheets in hand, who can attest to what happened and have proof of the will of Venezuelan society that day.”
If the poll projections are confirmed, Jimenez predicts a democratic transition process with multiple challenges for the opposition, which would become the government in January 2025. “Building consensus and agreements, promoting cooperation among politicians, recognizing the participation of civil society in the transition, and above all, not underestimating the adversary who will continue to hold significant power. These processes are fragile, and the new government’s biggest challenge will be reducing uncertainty,” she concluded.
Today the electoral campaign closes in Venezuela, and so far, despite being a completely unbalanced campaign in favor of the regime, all polls give the opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez a considerable advantage over President Nicolas Maduro. What do these electoral projections mean?
It has been an unequal campaign in an authoritarian context. It is the least competitive campaign since 1999, where the opposition has faced a series of obstacles. For example, it has had no access to media, radio, or television, and very few resources to travel and reach communities. There has been a lot of harassment. However, they have managed to overcome all these obstacles, including the disqualification of primary winner Maria Corina Machado, and have managed to transfer that enthusiasm to Edmundo Gonzalez, who is now the candidate of the Democratic Unity Platform.
Edmundo Gonzalez holds the preference in the polls due to the desire for change in Venezuela across all sectors. When we look at serious polls in Venezuela, even discontented Chavistas indicate they desire change.
The uncertainty is also lived with the hope of a possible transition to another political system, with the possibilities of an improvement in the quality of life and also the possibility of the return of many family members who have been forced to emigrate. This has been the strength of the opposition campaign, offering improvement, quality of life, and the return of family members whose exodus has caused significant gaps and pain in Venezuelan society.
It has also been a great surprise that Maduro has allowed this campaign to advance. Despite these restrictions, the Chavismo side is confident that other polls favor Nicolas Maduro, and therefore, they have allowed the electoral process to go forward. But according to what we understand, those figures are based on the estimated number of people who will actually vote on the 28th, after the effect that some obstacles might have on the opposition voter turnout. Can you estimate the impact of these “electoral traps” can have on voting?
There is a negotiation framework that, although it has been breached and also recessed, it is a framework, and that is why the primaries were also held last year as part of that negotiation. International actors have played a role, and the candidacy of Edmundo Gonzalez on the Democratic Unity Platform’s ticket has been maintained until today.
The government has run a campaign and maintained confidence in victory. Government spokespeople say that the Venezuelan people will celebrate the victory with the government candidate, while all the polls say otherwise. From now until the election, the government will increase intimidation in multiple ways to provoke a possible abstention that could disadvantage the opposition candidate and try to intimi
