The search for a negotiated solution
By Raul K. Bautista
HAVANA TIMES – Some international human rights organizations and foreign ministers from the OAS or European Union countries believe that “the deterioration in the Nicaraguan human rights situation could still be reversed, and respect for the Rule of Law reestablished.” (From the June 20, 2024 oral update on the promotion and protection of human rights in Nicaragua, issued during the 56th session of the UN Human Rights Council,)
Given that evaluation, the EU, US, OAS, and other governments and international entities will continue issuing calls for the Ortega-Murillo regime to seek a negotiated solution in pursuit of a return to democracy in Nicaragua and an end to the human rights violations there. They’ll support “any perspective for a significant national dialogue (..) [and will continue] insisting on some sine qua non conditions for such a dialogue,” (European Parliament resolution passed on June 15, 2023).
A negotiation between Ortega-Murillo, the US and sectors of the opposition, as has been suggested, is possible. The day after the 222 political prisoners were liberated and banished [February 9, 2023], US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made a phone call to Nicaraguan foreign minister Denis Moncada and they discussed the situation of the prisoners and “the importance of a constructive dialogue.” However, Trump’s advisors have stated that if he wins the election, he won’t negotiate with Nicaragua; and if Biden wins, he’ll continue prioritizing other foreign policy issues. In any case, it’s the Nicaraguan regime that should issue the call for a negotiation.
The Ortega-Murillo duo’s strategic decision to transition from authoritarianism to totalitarianism negates any possibility of a negotiation that could lead to a solution to the sociopolitical crisis. In simple terms, it cancels out any negotiation, because the regime’s essential objective is maintaining power. That’s the reason that totalitarian systems neutralize all those who question them and eliminate their opponents. Still, whether or not they ascribe to that thesis, the opposition can’t and shouldn’t renounce the idea of dialogue and negotiation. We must turn deaf ears to neophyte political analysts who consider themselves infallible experts, and who – standing on their moral pedestals – see any negotiation with Ortega as an act of ingenuousness, moral failing, and treason to the struggle.
Negotiation is a necessary tool to end wars and finish off systems or regimes that violate human rights. It’s the most often utilized modern tool for the peaceful resolution of controversies and even barbarous acts. Some examples: the African National Congress negotiated an end to apartheid and free elections in South Africa with then-ruler Frederik De Klerk; the combatants in East Timor negotiated with the occupying troops of the Indonesian Army during their struggle for independence, even though the latter had massacred over 88 thousand people; and Ukraine entered into a [failed] negotiation process with Russia a few months after their invasion.
Nicaraguan opposition remains divided and fragmented
Although it’s very improbable that Ortega and Murillo would issue a call to negotiate, it’s conceivable that they could be forced to do so, and the opposition should prepare themselves for such a possibility. It’s been suggested that in such a case, their representatives should be those who have remained most belligerent since 2018, because the opposition groups are “dispersed and directionless.” Who and how could such groups select their representatives to a negotiation?
Before November 2021, peripheral opposition sectors centered their implacably destructive criticism on the protagonists, leaders, and organizations (the Civic Alliance, the Blue and White National Unity movement) that had arisen from the April 2018 insurrection. Now, each time a group, coalition or inclusive platform emerges that is capable of bringing together broad sectors inside and outside the country and attract international support, it’s sabotaged by o